Folks, this is gonna get ugly #votenz
The only way through for David Cunliffe is to tear David Shearer down. By virtue of his compelling bio, media sure-footedness and stellar leadership attributes, Shearer has captured the public imagination in a way that his rival could never hope to replicate. This is not to say that Cunliffe is without skills or experience; it is simply that he is a cookie-cutter candidate who has the misfortune of running against someone who is most assuredly not.
But Cunliffe has time on his side; two weeks to be exact. That gives his allies ample opportunity to derail Shearer juggernaut, which is the only way Cunliffe can emerge from this victorious. If both candidates remain standing come ballot-time, Shearer wins handily. Cunliffe needs to hustle him off the paddock.
How does he do this?
The most obvious strategy is for Team Cunliffe to breathe new life into the age-old factional rivalries and paint Shearer as a right-winger. If they can make this a battle of Left v Right, they win. They will be forced to do this largely by association since Shearer had no obvious dog in the old left-right battles of yore. But guilt by association is a tried and true strategy and we can expect to see loads of it. Look who supports Shearer! Look who he might bring into his office! (I, a complete nobody in the scheme of things, have already been implicated in this way by a blogger who dismissed me as a “Mike Moore supporter” as if my allegiances in a leadership tussle fifteen years ago is my defining characteristic).
A second (and related) way Team Cunliffe will try and undermine Shearer is to cast him as a white male chauvinist (probably homophobe). Cunliffe is already making a lot of noises about his awesome sensitivity to women, Maori and minorities as a way of contrasting himself with Shearer who, by implication, is less righteous on these matters. The fact that Shearer spent decades working tirelessly to promote human dignity through his work with the United Nations and Save the Children fund makes a screaming mockery of this argument, but it won’t stop them from making it.
A lunatic element of the guilt by association trope is the suggestion that Shearer’s candidacy is the product of a grand right-wing conspiracy evidenced by flattering comments made about him by conservative critics like David Farrar and Deborah Coddington. Lew Stoddart at Kiwi Politico has rightly called this argument tin-foil-hattery . There was a time when it was seen as a good thing when a Labour leader had the ability to appeal across the spectrum of NZ society, and it points to a warped view of politics to couch this as evidence of treachery or unworthiness. Of course Team Cunliffe knows this nonsense is exactly that and will probably stop short of openly spreading it, but it won’t stop them egging on the crazies who do.
Again the biggest problem for Cunliffe, is Cunliffe when it comes to trying to position himself as friend-o-women or friend-o-brown people.
Remember his considered “not if she was the last woman on earth” dig at Judith Collins? http://www.3news.co.nz/Cunliffe-apologises-for-Judith-Collins-comments/tabid/419/articleID/231791/Default.aspx classy Dave, real classy.
And frankly having the disconnected arrogance to claim selecting a Maori MP as his running mate demonstrates his connection to pasifika is classic Cunliffe. I’m just waiting for someone to say, dude, you know Maori and Pacific Islanders aren’t the same, eh?
Is it possible that the party might conduct itself with maturity and for the selection process to not be defined by negative campaigning? Remember Bolger’s famous quip about the race card; sure you can play it, but what do you tomorrow?
Hope so but suspect not. Didn’t know Bolger was capable of such wisdom.
Bollocks to that – Cunliffe is the one who should be criticised for his hamfisted attempt at making race an issue. If he is going to run around claiming he is reaching out to Pacific Islanders by selecting a Maori running mate, he needs to be called for being ridiculous.
I believe Bolger said it in ’93 around the time brand Winston was in start up mode.