Parker has the numbers against Cunliffe
Update: from a different but equally credible authority, I am assured that King and Mallard are about as undecided as Cunliffe himself, albeit in the opposite direction.
From pretty good authority, here are the numbers in the coming contest between Davids Parker and Cunliffe.
FWIW, I lean Shearer but would support Parker over Cunliffe. Would prefer the caucus attendance book over Cunliffe.
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Parker/Robertson (22)
Parker
Goff
King
Mallard
Horomia
Street
Cosgrove
Mahuta
Ardern
G Robertson
Jones
Sio
Fenton
Wall
R Robertson
O’Connor
Clark
Tirakatene
Woods
Faafoi
Twyford
Shearer
Cunliffe/Dalziel (11)
Cunliffe
Dyson
Moroney
Chauvel
Little
Mackey
Curran
Prasad
Dalziel
Lees-Galloway
Burns
Unsure/conflicted
Hipkins
You’re kidding Phil, your sources would be few and of limited value. Frankly, anyone with genuine inside knowledge would STFU.
What Paul said.
Sometimes leaking a counts helps a candidate, sometimes it doesn’t. There is no ironclad rule. Rather than slagging me and dismissing sources despite not knowing who they are, how about contributing a useful or substantive critique? Since I published the post, all indicators are that the count is broadly accurate. This has come from multiple sources, both in the form of confidential emails sent directly to me, as well as reports elsewhere. Do you dispute this? On what basis? Feel free to email me off the record if you have actual information as opposed to the desire to engage in lazy slurs.
I would be very surprised if Dyson supports Cunliffe.
Goff, King, Jones and Cosgrove, would all need relational reasons to support Parker against Cunliffe, wouldn’t they? But he is that much of a prick that people who should theoretically support him politically might rather gnaw their own fingers off than see him the leader of their party.
It seems…
Implausible to me that Parker would have the support of so many Labour MPs from Auckland despite him having only moved there a few months ago…
Seriously doubt his geographical origins will shift votes in any direction.
Parker does not have an electorate. And failed to do the deed in Epsom.
Cunliffe is a poll topper. He increased his margin over the Natz Grosser by 3.4%points. Natz party vote % actually decreased in New Lynn. Cunliffe has the core values, the intellectual horse-power and the leadership skills to create an exciting Labour party. He would make it relevant to a wider constituency.
If you saw him presenting on Economic issues you would understand why the Natz fear him. That is why Boag Coddington Hooton Whale et al are slagging him off.
If you saw him outlining macro policies and making them relevant to working people in Kelston and New Lynn, Titirangi and Blockhousebay you would understand why he has such big support.
If you want to link electorate performance to leadership suitability then Shearer is by the best qualified
Shearer wins hands down on all factors except parliamentary experience and obvious charisma. He is exactly the sort of leader Labour needs but won’t pick.
Phil, you’ve achieved what you aimed for: writing yourself into the story.
Perhaps strategic leaks are useful, that’s not my point. I’m saying I don’t believe you have reliable links and that if you did, you’d not be speculating in public.
If you wanted to help Labour, rather than yourself, you’d be engaging entirely differently. I’ve said my piece, I’ll leave it at that.
@ Paul Williams. Seems like Phil has been picking this story quite well to me. I’m relying on his blog to keep me up to date with what has been happening in this contest – so has David Parker, clearly!
I see that Mahuta is backing Parker ,according to your source
Yes. Obviously numbers change every hour of every day in leadership battles. She clearly changed sides as part of accepting the deputy spot. It may all change again. Parker’s vote has collapsed into Shearer but that doesn’t make the count I published inaccurate except in retrospect which is a little unfair, don’t you agree?
So who would have followed her?
It is exceptionally fluid from what I can gather, but I think the idea that Mahuta has brought the Maori bloc onside is an enormous exaggeration.
Parker has yet again fallen on his own sword far too easily. He might have been our next Prime Minister if the right wingers hadn’t successfully sent the shivers up Parker and Cunliffe by supporting Shearer in the online polls. Yesterday I thought Parker would probably win, Now I have no doubt that Cunliffe will.
I don’t even know where to start.